SeeLevel_cpAIC_last20_2015AIC_last20_2014AIC_1998modPrior_since1970modPrior_last20Strong95_last20AIC_1998AIC_last20_2014AIC_last20_2015AIC_Strong_2015AIC_Strong2005HADCRUT_15yr_contHADCRUT_15yr_disct

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RSS

HADCRUT_projectionThis is Monckton’s view of RSS data:

Moncktons view

This is what happens when you make the trend lines meet at Monckton’s pause date:

Continuous Monckton pause

This is what you get if you fit a  changepoint model, which objectively identifies the number and location of any changes in trend. First, if you ignore autocorrelation:

myview

And this is the result of changepoint model that accounts for residual autocorrelation (AR1 errors):

RSS_bugsCP_ar1

 

 

RSS