RSS

HADCRUT_projectionThis is Monckton’s view of RSS data:

Moncktons view

This is what happens when you make the trend lines meet at Monckton’s pause date:

Continuous Monckton pause

This is what you get if you fit a  changepoint model, which objectively identifies the number and location of any changes in trend. First, if you ignore autocorrelation:

myview

And this is the result of changepoint model that accounts for residual autocorrelation (AR1 errors):

RSS_bugsCP_ar1

 

 

RSS